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2026 Midyear Market Outlook: Five shifts reshaping markets | T. ...

www.troweprice.com

Nearly halfway through 2026, we looked back at the themes from our Global Market Outlook published last November. Many of the key trends we identified heading into this year, such as continued credit market resilience and broader equity market leadership, played out largely as anticipated. Regional trends proved to be more mixed, however. Markets have been anything but stable in the first half of 2026. A sequence of geopolitically driven shocks has collided with surging artificial intelligence (AI) investment, robust corporate earnings, and solid U.S. economic growth. Risk assets have remained relatively strong amid these crosscurrents. But the danger for investors is mistaking resilience for calm. War-driven supply shocks have exposed fragile energy markets, resulting in structurally higher prices, regional shortages, and rising demand for different sources of energy. In this new environment, the themes of energy security and diversification—in addition to critical minerals production—lead to compelling investment opportunities. ... As of April 30, 2026. Potential impacts of the energy shock on inflation, growth, and interest rates · As of May 31, 2026. Analysis by T.

2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook | J.P. Morgan Global Research

www.jpmorgan.com

Fabio, thank you so much for sharing your insights. Fabio Bassi: Thank you so much for having me, Sam. Sam Azzarello: All right, that wraps up our 2026 midyear outlook episode here on Making Sense. We hope you found the insights from our analysts helpful, and we wanna thank you for tuning in. By December 2026, Brent crude is expected to reach $78/bbl, gold $6,000/oz, copper $14,800/mt and wheat $5.80/bu. ... So far, most emerging markets (EM) have withstood the energy shock better than expected, though the inflationary impulse has led to a sharp repricing of central banks’ outlooks. Already, some central banks across EM are tilting more hawkish as price pressures continue to build. “As we enter the second half of 2026, we expect the reflationary backdrop to persist, with heightened risks from U.S. rates repricing — even as the grip of oil prices on EM markets likely wanes,” said Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro Research at J.P. Stephen Dulake: I think as we move into the second half of the year, we seem to be at the beginning of some off-ramp hopefully from the conflict in the Middle East, while lower oil prices have a positive impact on the rate of inflation, some of the economic resilience that we've seen is likely to be reinforced, not least here in the U.S. Sam Azzarello: Welcome to JP Morgan's Making Sense. I'm Sam Azzarello and I lead content strategy for global research here at J.P. Morgan. We're at the midpoint of 2026 and it's been a year defined by big moves across markets, shifting expectations for inflation and policy, and persistent geopolitical headwinds. Then we'll be joined by various members from JP Morgan Global Research to unpack the themes driving markets, from equities and rates to FX and commodities. So with that, let's get started. Bruce, thanks so much for being here today. Bruce Kasman: Hi, Sam. Thanks for having me. Sam Azzarello: So Bruce, on the whole, how has the global economy held up in the first half of 2026? Bruce Kasman: I would say that the first half of 2026 has reaffirmed our core macro views against the backdrop of a very significant geopolitical shock with the Middle East conflict.

2026 Market Outlook | J.P. Morgan Global Research

www.jpmorgan.com

That wraps up our 2026 outlook episode, here on Making Sense. We hope you found the insights from our analysts helpful and insightful, and we wanna thank you for tuning in. For more market insights, be sure to visit jpmorgan.com/research. Voiceover: Thanks for listening to Research Recap. If you've enjoyed this conversation, we hope you'll review, rate, and subscribe to JP Morgan's Making Sense to stay on top of the latest industry news and trends, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. For European high-yield, default rates are expected to remain in the 3–4% range for the third consecutive year, but elevated recoveries are limiting credit losses. “We look for the current tight spread regime to continue, with a 2026 forecast of 300 bp, equivalent to a 5.5% total return,” Lamy added. ... Lower macro volatility looks set to support EM local markets in 2026. Overall growth (excluding China) is forecast to maintain a trend-like pace of 3.3%, helped by factors including fading tail-risks on tariffs, easier monetary policy and ongoing tech capex. We forecast one further 25 basis point cut from the Fed in January, which is a bit less than what's priced into the front end of the curve in terms of the terminal rate over 2026. So we see terminal rate getting close to, or getting to 3.5%. Um, we expect the Bank of England to cut rates to about 3.5% by the middle of next year, which is a little more than priced into markets. In 2026, Brent crude is expected to average $58/bbl, natural gas 28.75 EUR/MWh, gold $4,753/oz, silver $56/oz and wheat $5.65/bu. ... Listen for more insights from Making Sense: 2026 outlook: What’s next for markets and the global economy?

Market perspectives - Vanguard for Advisors

advisors.vanguard.com

Firms in semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and technology hardware subsectors have delivered the highest returns—again backed by upward earnings growth revisions of more than 30% over the next few years. Health care and financials, with minimal revisions to earnings, have lagged markedly. The expected rate of earnings growth for the rest of 2026 is running meaningfully above the pace of recent years. This “AI complex” comprises companies undertaking AI infrastructure buildout—including “hyperscalers” Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle—and companies across the semiconductor stack, data centers, and networking infrastructure that benefit from hyperscaler spending. For this year and next, we expect this AI complex to generate more than half of all U.S. earnings growth. Source: Vanguard calculations, based on data from Bloomberg, as of June 12, 2026. We expect unemployment to stabilize in the mid-4% range, consistent with full employment. Given this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold. We no longer expect a rate cut in 2026 and anticipate policy will stay at current levels through 2027. At the start of 2026, we anticipated continued earnings momentum, with risks skewed to the upside. At midyear, that view has largely been borne out.

Mortgage Rates Forecast for Next 90 Days: May to July 2026

www.noradarealestate.com

Right now, the 10-year Treasury yield, which is a big signal for mortgage rates, is hovering around 4.5% to 4.6%. It’s worth remembering that rates had been climbing from their highs in 2023 and 2025, and they’ve sort of settled into this mid-6% groove for 2026. It's a common misconception that the Federal Reserve directly sets mortgage rates. While their actions are hugely influential, mortgage rates are actually more closely tied to the bond market, especially the 10-year Treasury yield. While we’re focused on May to July 2026, many experts believe that rates could gradually ease through the rest of the year, potentially moving into the upper 5% to low 6% range, especially if the Fed does start cutting rates. The idea of “higher for longer” is still a possibility due to some fundamental economic factors. If rates do tick down, we might see a bit more activity in the housing market. Norada Real Estate helps you secure turnkey rental properties designed for immediate cash flow and appreciation—so you can invest smartly regardless of interest rate trends. 🔥 HOT 2026 INVESTMENT LISTINGS JUST ADDED! 🔥 ... Marco Santarelli is an investor, author, Inc. 5000 entrepreneur, and the founder of Norada Real Estate Investments – a nationwide provider of turnkey cash-flow investment property. His mission is to help 1 million people create wealth and passive income and put them on the path to financial freedom with real estate. Based on what I'm seeing and hearing from various financial analyses, the consensus for the next 90 days (May to July 2026) is for mortgage rates to remain relatively stable. We’re likely looking at the low-to-mid 6% range, with occasional wiggles of perhaps 0.2% to 0.5% in either direction.

Oil prices and AI investment play major role in the US economic ...

www.deloitte.com

Wolff, “Will Trump’s latest gambit to impose his tariffs be upheld by the courts?” Peterson Institute for International Economics, March 17, 2026. S&P Global, accessed via Haver Analytics. ... Editorial (including production and copyediting): Arpan Saha, Preetha Devan, Pubali Dey, and Anu Augustine ... Access more insights for the consumer spending, housing, business investment, globalization & international trade, fiscal & monetary policy, sustainability, equity, & climate, labor markets and prices & inflation sectors. The federal deficit is expected to remain wider than 6% through 2031, which is slightly larger than the February 2026 baseline expectation published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).5 The expected larger deficit is partially due to our lower forecast for net migration. Notably, the real yield on the 30-year Treasury, which strips out the inflationary effect, was up more than 10 basis points compared with the January 2026 average. Higher long-term yields limit the stimulative effect of the Fed’s prior monetary easing cycles. The interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up about 50 basis points since the conflict in the Middle East began, adding clear downward pressure on the housing market and related spending. After the Supreme Court ruling, the country implemented a blanket 10% tariff under Section 122, which will expire on July 24, 2026.9 The administration announced that it plans to implement more tariffs under Section 301, which allows the country to impose tariffs on countries that are engaged in unfair trade practices. Many countries may face either a 10% or 12.5% tariff under the statute, with exemptions for a range of products.10